Weld County experts say with about 54.5% of the county fully vaccinated, we aren’t at herd immunity. Here’s what that could mean for the fall and winter months.

By Kelly Ragan

So far, despite vaccines being part of our collective toolkit, many of Weld County’s COVID-19 numbers don’t look much different than they did last year. 

Cindy Kronague, a data specialist with the Weld County Department of Public Health and Environment, said in an interview with the NoCo Optimist that in her view, many of the metrics for August 2021 look similar to August 2020.

That includes hospitalization rates, percent of beds occupied by COVID-19 patients, the average one-week positivity rates, and the number of deaths. Total case numbers have actually increased in Weld this summer. 

As it stands, the rates aren’t better than they were last year. They’re the same, if not worse. That doesn’t bode well as we head into the colder months. 

Why is that if we have a vaccine now? 

Weld County’s vaccination rate – 54.5% fully vaccinated as of Wednesday – isn’t yet high enough to boast herd immunity, Smith said. 

Before the Delta variant, a more transmissible version of the COVID-19 virus, came into the picture, public health officials set the goal post at 70% vaccination rate to reach herd immunity. 

“Because of the transmissibility of the Delta variant, we might need to have a vaccination rate higher than 70% for herd immunity,” said Valerie Smith, Weld County epidemiologist. 

Last summer, Smith said, Weld and the rest of the state still had mask mandates in place. People were still working from home. This summer, Weld hasn’t had the same restrictions in place. 

Furthermore, based on the data Smith said they’re seeing around the country, more children are becoming infected.

So, what does that mean? What can we expect for the coming fall and winter seasons? 

Smith said that because COVID-19 is a respiratory illness, we can expect to see an increase in the fall and winter months. With all respiratory illnesses, people are inside more often and the cold, dry air can weaken our resistance. But the current, relatively low level of vaccination rates add an extra layer to that. 

“With an increase in cases, the vaccination rates in Weld where it is, and dropping public health restricts, like masks and hand sanitizer, means a rise in cases,” Smith said. “Unfortunately, this is why we all need to be even more cautious as we move into the fall.” 

Experts, including Mark Lawley, the executive director of the health department, believe hospitalizations is the best metric to gauge the severity of the virus.  Banner Health’s Chief Clinical Officer said the same thing in a press conference earlier this month.  

Smith said that from an epidemiological perspective, she would be watching for how many people are making other people sick when they get infected – in other words, how transmissible the virus is. 

County’s stance on masks 

Weld County has been consistent with its stance on masks being a personal choice. That hasn’t changed. 

“If people want to wear masks,” Lawley said, “they should wear masks.”  

Lawley said the way we were going to beat the virus was clear. 

“It’s really important to go out and get vaccinated,” he said. “We’re really encouraging that.”